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08 Nov
Facility Services M&A – Fall 2022 Update

FACILITY SERVICES MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

How have Increased Interest Rates and Volatility Impacted Valuations for FS Service Companies

 

Economic Summary

Before addressing the question, “How have Increased Interest Rates and Volatility Impacted Valuations for FS Service Companies”, it is only prudent to review where the fight against inflation, via interest rate policy, has brought us.

The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75 bps to the 3%-3.25% range during its September meeting, the third straight three-quarter point increase and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008. Policymakers also anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate which was reinforced by Chair Powell during the press conference. “We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t”. The so-called dot plot showed interest rates will likely reach 4.4% by December, above 3.4% projected in June, and rise to 4.6% next year. Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were revised lower to show a 0.2% expansion this year, compared to 1.7% seen in June and 1.2% in 2023, below 1.7% seen in June. Inflation as measured by PCE is seen to reach 5.4% in 2022 (5.2% projected in June) and 2.8% in 2023 (vs 2.6%). Source: Federal Reserve

 

Impact to Facility Services

Last quarter, in our Spring FS Update Report, we wrote: “We have witnessed substantial bifurcation within the facility services vertical.  On one extreme we have material winners, such as many janitorial/cleaning companies responding to an increase in their customers’ cleaning needs in order to keep their employees and their customers safe.”  This increase in demand has often offset the downturn resulting from the cancellation of major sporting events and closures of college campuses, office buildings and those venues operating in the hospitality and travel industry.

On the other hand, those FS sub-verticals where revenue is heavily weighted on the construction side, which is virtually absent of on-going maintenance services such as most mechanical and electrical services, flooring installation, masonry, etc, have suffered a substantial cash squeeze as delays have been rampant.

LockeBridge is the Leading M&A Advisor in the Facility Service Vertical

 11 Companies Sold Since in Last Three Years
Multiple Domestic and International Bids Received

Facilities Services and the Volatile Economy:
Maintenance Services vs. Construction

Because the Fed actions are aimed at slowing down the economy, those FS Companies that are focused on Construction are much more at risk than those having longer-term maintenance contracts.

In fact, companies operating in verticals in which maintenance contracts are standard practice, such as commercial cleaning, security services, fire safety, etc., are much less sensitive to economic ups and downs. Accordingly, these companies are commanding significantly higher earnings multiple in comparison to  Construction focused companies.

 Increasing Interest Rates and Valuations
The Fed hopes that raising interest rates will slow down the economy, thereby causing most companies to face downward pressure on their forecasts. To make matter worse, as interest rates move higher, the value of future earnings are less attractive causing the current value of businesses to decrease. That’s because when interest rates increase, all other things equal, the cost of both debt and equity capital increase, resulting in a lower return on equity.

The question then becomes:

  • How much will the value of my business decrease in the face of higher interest rates?

Another question we are frequently asked by business owners is;

  • In an increasing interest rate environment, how much more business do I need to do in order to maintain the company’s valuation?

 The foregoing questions will be discussed in our Fall/Winter Facilities Services Report titled
Quantifying the Impact on Valuations from Changes in Interest Rates.

LOCKEBRIDE FACILITY SERVICE PRACTICE

Technical ServicesManaged Services
Control AutomationGrounds Maintenance
ElectricalJanitorial
Equipment RepairFood Service
Exterior RepairInterior Maintenance
Fire SafetyLaundry
FlooringPest Control
HVAC and MechanicalSecurity
10 Mar
Lawyer International Awards – Leading Boutique Investment Bank

March 2018
For Immediate Release

Lawyer International’s annual awards mark excellence for the world’s leading advisers and financiers in an array of countries and continents. The awards commemorate those who have been successful over the past 12 months and who have shown excellence not only in expertise but in service.

According to Lawyer International, “Over the last 12 months, we have analysed in excess of 88,233 votes. During the judging process a number of factors are considered. The voting readers are asked to identify those firms and individuals that are noted for having a high degree of ability in complex situations, those that continually innovate, level of service is of great importance as is overall value for money, in what is a tough global economy.  Recognizing the experience and skills that many of the developed nations have, we know how important it is to be recognized as a leader in your field of expertise. Lawyer International’s – Legal 100 – 2018 – Awards recognize a select number of leading professional firms and individuals, across the globe, for their individual areas of specialization, within their geographical location.”

09 May
LockeBridge Wins The Corporate Insider’s 2017 Mid-Market Investment Bank of the Year

May 2017

LockeBridge, a Boston area investment bank, has been awarded The Corporate Insider’s 2017 Mid-Market Investment Bank of the Year.  Arianna Smith of the Corporate Insider wrote to Scott Waxler, Managing Partner of LockeBridge.

Dear Mr. Waxler,

Congratulations on your success in winning our 2017 Business Excellence Award for the
Mid – Market Investment Banking Firm of the Year – USA.

“The judges had no easy task in selecting the winners as there were many innovative and creative firms that made it to the shortlist. Corporate Insider looks to recognize people and organizations that have achieved the greatest of successes. Our awards reflect the most prominent business sectors that range from engineering consultants to financial advisers. We are open to a wide variety of businesses and industries that have demonstrated how they have become the forerunners and best examples to follow.” 

Voting had run for 12 months and we received nominations for the most innovative and successful businesses across a range of industries. We looked at recent performance and notable achievements over the past 12 months as well as the efficiency of the services offered. 

We opened voting at the start of 2016 and sent our awards team to attend several business conferences and events across Europe, the middle east and the USA. We also sent the voting form to our subscriber base. We believe in taking a personal approach and have invested the time to meet face to face with many nominators in order to create a comprehensive file for each nominee.

Corporate Insider is a well respected source for business news, and our awards have showcased the best in the industry. We have a great panel of judges who take an ethical approach to ensure all nominees are given a fair chance. Our previous winners have included big corporations such as Bentley and Microsoft right down to start ups and niche small businesses.

02 Mar
Asset Protection and Estate Taxes for Business Owners

Asset Protection and Estate Taxes for Business Owners

Most Mid-Size Businesses Owners Needlessly Pay Huge Estate Taxes & Unnecessarily Expose Business & Personal Assets to Creditors.

Business Owners seem to be relatively savvy in reducing income taxes however, we rarely see owners implement effective estate plans or prudently protect personal and business assets. Unfortunately less than 1 out of 5 business owners we speak with have an appropriate succession or estate plan, and most of these owners will lose 50% or more of the value of their business if the plan is not amended. Additionally, most business owners leave their personal assets exposed to business creditors. Perhaps even worse is that most are not even aware that they can lose their personal assets to any number of potential creditors.

For Business Owners Preparing for a Sale
The Potential to Materially Reduce or Eliminate
Taxes can be Quite Substantial and Time Sensitive.

The Interview – Asset Protection & Estate Tax
We have interviewed dozens of Business Owners regarding their estate plans. Of those Owners that do have a plan the most frequent set of responses are:

LockeBridge: What kind of trust do you have?
Bus. Owner: I’m not sure.

LockeBridge: There are many different types of trusts. Can you call your lawyer to find out what you have!
Bus. Owner: My lawyer tells me that I have a revocable trust that will protect me.

LockeBridge: Did you know that currently your revocable trust will only shelter $5.45M from federal estate taxes for each of you and your wife and there is a good change that you will have to pay state and federal estate taxes of more than 50% of your net worth.
Bus. Owner: Are you kidding! I expect my Company to grow significantly so the taxes are going to be huge. Why didn’t my lawyer tell me about this?

LockeBridge: Well, did your estate attorney speak with you about the eventual disposition of your Company.
Bus. Owner: No, when I was speaking with him I was not considering the sale of my Company. Now that I have decided to sell it these issues are more tangible to me

LockeBridge: I assume that your also not aware that you can also shelter substantially more of your Company from estate taxes by valuing the Company utilizing an IRS acceptable Lack of Marketability and/or a Minority Interest Discount prior to gifting or selling it to a irrevocable trust. I would be happy to illustrate for you how much you can save by doing this. I would also be happy to refer you to another estate attorney.

If you are contemplating the sale of your business
in the foreseeable future, it is even more important to act now

or you will most likely lose much of the opportunity to reduce estate taxes.

More Than Estate Tax Protection – Protection From Creditors
In addition to estate taxes a proper trust vehicle can keep both the business owner’s personal and business assets safe from creditors such as:

  • Divorcees
  • Tax Collectors
  • Accident victims
  • Health-care providers
  • Credit card issuers
  • Business creditors

Select Client Experience – Estate Planning and Asset Protection

“LockeBridge gained a clear understanding of our objectives which went well beyond the transaction itself. They gave us invaluable guidance on estate planning and wealth management. This was a part of the process we had given very little thought to but turned out to be a very important step in completing the deal and preserving our wealth”

Joe Montesano
President and CEO – Something Sweet, Inc.

“Not only did LockeBridge structure a very favorable deal and manage all the steps to closing, they provided services far beyond the transactional requirements focusing on the personal interests, tax minimization, and wealth creation of the owners. Winning Proposals was actually a subsidiary holding of a pension fund with multiple layers. The objective was to create a transfer that would result in deferring materially all taxes while at the same time meeting the Owners’ post-closing income needs.”

David Claiborne
President -Winning Proposals, Inc.

“LockeBridge gave us invaluable advice on how to both minimize and defer the taxes which resulted from the transaction. Because the buyer was a foreign public company, on the Stockholm exchange, the financial considerations were even more complex. In the end we made a very favorable transaction and protected our assets from creditors which were exposed to certain potentially adverse foreign policies.”

Matthew Nekoroski
President -Surgical Tables, Inc.

* LockeBridge advises its clients on strategies to minimize estate and income taxes. When appropriate LockeBridge refers its clients to attorneys and accountants which are pre-approved via an arduous screening process which seeks both excellence in performance and uncompromising client commitment. LockeBridge does not charge retainers and we do not accept compromising referral fees. Mission Statement / No Conflict of Interest.

09 Oct
ACQ Magazine Awards LockeBridge Leading Investment Bank for 2nd Year in a Row

London, October 2015

Once again ACQ, one of the world’s leading markets magazine has singled out the outstanding insitutions and individuals in the sector. We are proud to release the results of the ACQ Global Awards 2015 taking the ultimate step in the search for the most outstanding company, practice area, individual and firm-wide professionals within the public & private sectors across the globe. All the awards have one central theme – they recognize institutions and individuals that demonstrate leadership, innovation and momentum in the markets in which they excel.

For the second year in a row we congratulate LockeBridge, LLC for winning
THE USA LEADING INVESTMENT BANK OF THE YEAR

Since 2003, the ACQ Global Awards have been celebrating achievement, innovation and brilliance in their annual awards. Every year we seek the assistance of our tens of thousands of readers to nominate and recognize industry leaders, exemplary teams and distinguished organizations, which we beleive represent the benchmark of achievement and best practice in a variety of fields.

Exceptional individuals, teams and firms across the marketplace represent the very best in their field from around the world and truly deserve the accolade of being an ACQ Award winner. All category winners are in effect, a brand. In one sense, perhaps the most important sense, a brand is a promise. You know what you’re going to get with a well-branded product or service. It takes a lot of time, money and very hard work to build and maintain great brands, brands that can speak volumes in just a few syllables. It’s shorthand for what you are.”

Jake Robson
Editor in Chief
AQC Magazine

The LockeBridge Award can be viewed on page 63 in the AQC Global Awards Publication or by clicking here. The Award will also be advertised on CNN and The London Financial Times website.

23 May
Bus Value Decreases With Fed Rate Increases

PRELUDE

This article has been specifically written for the small business owner.

On May 22nd 2015 the Labor Department announced that the core CPI increased 0.3 percent, which represents the largest gain since January 2013. As a result of the CPI report, the Fed Fund Futures is now pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike before year end.

All else being equal, the value of small businesses will decrease when the Federal Reserve increases interest rates. Presumably all else will not be equal at the time the Fed raises rates. The Fed has stated that it will only raise rates when the economy is on a solid footing, as measured by key economic indicators. Hopefully the economic improvement has resulted in an increase in your company’s value sufficient to offset decline in value due to interest rate increases. That stated, the U.S. economy has seen upward momentum for six years and most businesses have now exceeded their 2007 earnings.

Articles with titles such as “The Biggest Threat to Stocks are a Fed Rate Hike” seem to be one of most popular topics these days. So why is Wall Street so nervous over a rate hike and why should you, the Business Owner, also take note? One of the drivers of the bull market has been the Fed’s policy of near zero rates since 2008.

Factoid: Since World War II there have been 16 cycles during which interest rates were raised and over 80% of the time, the stock market suffered a blow when the Fed raised rates. But, more importantly;

Low interest rates have also been one of the principal drivers behind favorable valuation multiples and these low interest rates are soon to rise causing downward pressure on valuations.

# # #

INCREASED INTEREST RATES EQUAL LOWER VALUE

All else being equal, when interest rates go up the value of businesses go down. This includes the value of lower mid-market businesses (generally classified between $5M – $100M in value). How much the value will go down in part depends upon the amount of debt available to the buyer in a potential transaction (i.e. the leverage amount) as well as the the buyer’s required return on equity. Commenting on the increase in the CPI, Todd Hedtke, Vice President for Investment Management at Allianz Investment Management, states, “I think it’s a decent sign for the economy. I don’t think it’s a good sign for capital markets.”

The required return on equity goes up with interest rates because equity investments compete with debt investments. The higher the interest rate on debt, the higher the required return on equity needs to be in order to attract investors. Stated another way, as interest rates rise investors are more attracted to fixed income investments, which in turn reduces the amount of capital available for equity investments. In order for a company to attract equity investment the company’s perceived future prospects must increase and/or perceived risk must decrease. The combined costs of equity and debt, called the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), are used to discount the company’s future expected cash flow and establish on measure of a company’s value.

When WACC increases 1%, what happens to the value of a small business? A typical company with $30M of Revenue and $3M of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) growing at a compound annual growth rate of 5% (the “Model Company”) will lose $945,000 (6.7%) of its value, from $14,038,000 to $13,093,000, with the EBITDA multiple decreasing from 4.91 to 4.5 (refer to below chart).

Impact of 1% rise in interest rates on typical company
with $30M Revenue, $3M EBITDA and 5% CAGR (the “Model Company”)
($ thousands)

Before 1% Increase in Rates
4% cost of debt, 23% cost of equity
After 1% Increase in Rates
5% cost of debt, 24% cost of equity
Difference% Difference
Enterprise Value1$14,038$13,093-$945-6.7%
Debt$5,615$5,237-$378-6.7%
WACC214.76%15.60%0.8%5.7%
TTM EBITDA Multiple34.914.58-33.0%-6.7%
  1. Enterprise Value: Equity + Debt
  2. WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  3. TTM EBITDA Multiple: Trailing Twelve Month EBITDA Multiple

As illustrated in the chart above, the $30M Model Company will lose $945,000 (6.7%) of its value as a result of a 1% increase in interest rates.

CONCLUSION

The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they will raise interest rates only when it is confident that the economic recovery is robust and companies have regained the ability to raise prices.

Per our analysis, if the Fed were to raise interest rates by 1%, from the current .13% to 1.13%, in order to maintain the current value of the business, the modeled $30M company will need to increase its operating profit by approximately 7.2% to compensate for a 1% rate increase.

Don’t panic quite yet. Interest rates are not going up overnight. U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the process of returning to a more normal level of interest rates will take a few years. Last week the Federal Funds Rate closed at .13 percent. Fed economists expect the rate will reach from 3.25 percent to 4 percent in three to four years. Will that mean that our Model Company will go down in value proportionally more? Probably not, for two reasons:

  1. Although the interest rate at which businesses borrow moves with the Fed Funds Rate, they do not necessarily move proportionately and
  2. As previously stated, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates with a growing economy. A growing economy generally translates into an increase in the value of small business.

Take note, there can be and most likely will be a lag between an increase in rates and an increase in valuations. This means that Business Owners who do not have a longer term time horizon, at least five years to outlast a cycle, should consider the impact of a rate hike on the value of their business and the timing of an exit. Keep in mind that even after you decide to start the exit process, between getting valuations, choosing an investment banker and executing the selling process, you are easily looking at 1 to 2 years.

01 Mar
Negotiating a Premium for the Sale of Your Business

Negotiating a Premium for the Sale of Your Business can take substantial preparation well beyond practicing your presentation. Most Buyers are significantly larger then the Seller, have executed numerous deals and have a team that is well coordinated and trained in all relevant areas of merger and acquisitions. Knowing that most Sellers of small businesses have never sold a business before you can be easy prey for the Buyer if you are not well prepared.

The key to achieving a premium for the sale of your business is not necessarily your ability to make a credible presentation of the valuable assets and opportunities in your business, which are rarely presented in an optimal fashion. When selling your business to a strategic buyer the most critical aspect of the negotiation is dependent upon your understanding of the Buyer’s operations and the determination of the value of the synergies which would be created by the merge of the two companies. Most people relate to the term 1+1=3. What is implied by this term is that the sum of the parts, when combined together, exceeds the total of the individual components when they remain separate. The amount by which the former exceeds the latter is referred to as the value of the synergies.

Synergies can come from either or both the cost side or revenue side of the equation. On the cost side, the consolidation of the operations generally presents a significant opportunity to cut costs. Examples of typical cost cutting are: Closing of duplicative locations, elimination of redundant jobs, an increase in buying power and reduction of part numbers. On the revenue side there may be an opportunity to raise prices or sell more product due to cross selling opportunities, reduced competitive pricing pressure and increased brand marketing.

The general rule of thumb is that the greater the amount of synergies the more the value and the more the Buyer can afford to pay. However, extracting the value of those synergies is quite another story. The savvy Buyer will never disclose the source of the synergies, let alone the value of such synergies. So how are you, the Seller, going to estimate the value of such synergies, which is the first step in executing a negotiating strategy which will reflect the value of the synergies in the price of your business.

As seen in the illustration below, the Normalized or Recasted EBITDA (i.e. adjusted for such items as owner’s excesses and one time events) of the Seller’s business is $2,000,000. Applying a 4X EBITDA multiple, a typical multiple for small businesses with little to no growth which are purchased by financial buyers, yields a price of $8 million. On the other hand, Strategic Buyers often pay multiples of 5 to 8 times EBITDA, depending on the magnitude of the synergies. Because of the synergies, the Strategic Buyer can justify paying a much higher price while still achieving their required return on equity (ROE). Let’s be clear, the required ROE for the Strategic Buyer is the exact same as that of the Financial Buyer. The only difference is that the Strategic Buyer, because of the value of the synergies, can afford to pay a higher price while still achieving the required ROE. Of course just because he can afford to pay a higher price does not mean that you, the Seller, will be able to negotiate such a premium price for your company.

Let’s look at an example. In our example, the synergies which can come from various areas such as cost savings, increase in sales from cross selling, technology benefits, etc., are estimated to be $1.0 million, which results in an adjusted “Synergistic EBITDA” of $3.0 million. Applying the same 4X multiple now results in a value to the Strategic Buyer of $12 million, the “Synergistic Value”, a 50% premium over the “Financial Value” of $8 million. Your ability to get the entire value of the synergies depends upon your negotiating skills. Chances are that the Negotiated Price will end up somewhere between the Financial Value and Synergistic Value. Your ability to negotiate a premium for the sale of you business will depend on several factors including your confidence in the estimated synergistic value.

Financial Buyer

Value of SynergiesN/A
Normalized EBITDA$2,000K
Mutliple4.0X
Financial Value$8,000
Buyer’s Initial Offer$7,000
Negotiated Price$8,000K
(+/- 10%)

Strategic Buyer

Value of Synergies$1,000K
Normalized EBITDA$3,000K
Mutliple4.0X
Synergistic Value12,000K
Buyer’s Initial Offer$7,000K
Negotiated Price$10,000K
(+/- 20%)

So how are you, the Seller, going to determine the value of the synergies and once determined how are you going to extract the entire Synergistic Value of $12 million, $4 million more than the Financial Value? As stated in the prior article, Selling Your Business to a Multi- Billion Dollar Acquirer, the prudent Buyer will not disclose the nature of their anticipated synergies to the Seller. The Buyer’s mentality is that they are enabling the resultant increase in value. As such, it is their objective to keep all of the incremental value emanating from those synergies. In the next articles we will explore how to obtain a premium price for your business by extracting the value of the synergies.

01 Dec
Selling Your Business to a Strategic Buyer

When selling your business to a strategic buyer, a principal objective should be to identify the incremental value of the synergies created by the merge of the two entities and capture as much of that value as possible. The first step in extracting the value of the synergies is to estimate the dollar amount of value created from the synergies. As stated in the last article, synergies can come from various places such as Cost & Risk Reductions, Process Improvements, Revenue Augmentation and Economies of Scale. According to The Boston Consulting Group, 94 percent of merger announcements which disclose the value of synergies mention only cost synergies or don’t mention the specific nature of the synergies at all. 1 The principal reason for the foregoing is that cost based synergies are the easiest to quantify. For example, estimating savings from eliminating administrative redundancy, consolidating operations and increased purchasing power are relatively straight forward.

With the above stated, bolt-on acquisitions completed by larger companies often result in substantial revenue synergies. Many larger companies acquire smaller “bolt-on” companies in order to add complimentary products to their offerings, which their sales people sell to the existing customer base. Furthermore, cross selling opportunities, the potential to sell both company’s products to the other company, can materially increase the Buyer’s revenue.

According to a 2012 study performed by Thompson Reuters, transaction synergies from a sample of 365 deals with values of more than $300 million that took place from 2000 – 2011 range from 2 to 10 percent (depending on the industry) of the target company’s latest annual sales, with a median of 4.8 percent (refer to chart below). If we assume that a similar level of synergies exist with lower mid-market transactions (i.e. transaction values less than $100M) we can infer that the synergies contribute an additional 50% or so to a typical small company’s EBITDA.2 But what if the Buyer generates billions of dollars of revenues in your market. Simply dropping your products into the hands of their salespeople can result in increasing your Company’s sales by a magnitude!

Source: Thomson Reuters Data Stream

Another statistic of the aforementioned Thomas Reuters study is the median amount of synergies captured by the selling company and reflected in the transaction price is 31%. When we multiply this 31% by the approximate 50% of incremental value created by the synergies, we can estimate that the average amount of transaction premium captured by Sellers from synergies is approximately 15%. This infers that a 5X EBITDA mutiple (a typical small company multiple paid for companies which have an anticipated 10% CAGR) would increase to 5.75X when sold to a strategic buyer with average synergies. It is important to note that the 31% statistic is based upon transactions values in excess of $300 million. Sellers of such transactions generally employ seasoned transaction advisory professionals where Sellers of lower mid-market (< $50M) transactions, and especially those executing transaction less than $20M generally do not have such transaction expertise.

Accordingly, it is our observation that most Sellers of smaller transactions (< $20M) see little to no increase in value due to synergies resulting from a sale to a strategic buyer. From our perspective, this is unacceptable.

There are a magnitude more potential financial buyers then strategic buyers, so why search for a strategic buyer if the Seller is not going to benefit from the synergies! In fact, the 31% of the total synergies which are captured by the Seller is also unacceptable to us. By effectively preparing the company for a transaction, studying the Buyer’s operations to enable a reasonable estimate of the value of the potential synergies and by applying seasoned negotiating skills one should be able to grab much more than the reported 31% of the synergistic value.

Don’t settle for little to no share of the synergies, let alone the average 31%. Sign up to receive the LockeBridge Newsletter to get the next articles in which we will discuss, how you (the Seller) can grab more than your fair share of the synergies created.

  1. March 27, 2013; Jens Kengelbach, Dennis Utzerath, Christoph Kaserer, and Sebastian Schatt; How Successful M&A Deals Split the Synergies.
  2. Assumes that a typical EBITDA margin of a well run company is 10%.
01 Jun
When Should I Sell My Business?

While working with business owners one of the issues most often pondered is “When Should I Sell My Business?” On a personal level the answer may be:

  • when your heart is no longer into it
  • when you decide it will take new blood or capital to get to the next level
  • when you reach an age when you are ready to retire
  • or any of a host of personal reasons

While any of the above may be good answers, one principal objective of the investment banker should be to help business owners time an exit so as to maximize their value in a transaction. Since the last recession officially ended in June 2009, we are now talking to many business owners who have two or three years of double digit earnings growth. Many of these people are baby boomers thinking about an exit strategy and believe their business has at least one more year of solid growth. They also do not want to get stuck fighting their way through another downturn. So, the real question is:

“Do I sell today or bet on another year of growth?”

The short answer is that buyer expectations drive value and one slow year deflates expectations very quickly. Buyers are investing in expected future earnings and historical earnings and growth rates are the baseline for creating the expectations. Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) valuation models are the tool most frequently used to quantify future value. The following example illustrates the importance of selling when expectations are high.

Assumptions – Company for Sale:

  1. Revenues and earnings have been growing by 10% annually, outlook is good.
  2. A buyer can borrow 30% of the purchase price based on the company’s cash flow and balance sheet. Weighted average cost of capital is approximately 16.8%.
  3. The fiscal year just completed produced operating income of $1,000,000.

Scenario 1 – Sell Today

  1. Buyer’s DCF model assumes growth will continue at 10% for the next 5 years and then 5% in perpetuity.
  2. The discounted cash flow valuation is $6.2 M.

Scenario 2 – Grow for 1 more year, then sell

  1. The economy slows and operating income grows by 5% to $1,050,000.
  2. Buyer’s DCF model assumes growth continues at 5% for 5 years and then 3% in perpetuity.

The discounted cash flow valuation is $4.9 M.

Conclusion

Selling with a strong growth outlook (scenario 1), versus selling later with a larger profit but a weaker growth outlook (scenario 2), almost always results in a higher transaction value. In the example, the Seller would have achieved a $1.3M higher valuation had he sold today with $1.0M of profit and growth rates of 10% (scenario 1), versus selling a year later with the higher profit of $1.05M but a lower growth rate of 5%. (scenario 2).

Both scenarios involve buyers with reasonable expectations based on recent operating histories, but higher earnings are almost never an adequate substitute for faster and/or more predictable sustainable growth.

There are many factors that are considered when a buyer values a company. Return on investment as quantified in a Discounted Cash Flow analysis, which discounts future expected earnings, is often a major consideration. That stated, our answer to the question of “when to sell,” is the following:

Sell when you have strong growth. Do not underestimate the risks of trying to add another dollar of profit. If you sincerely believe that there will be strong growth for a few more years, negotiate an earn-out or retain some equity so that you can participate in the upside, after you have put some money in the bank and mitigated the potential risk of a slow down.

As a final consideration, we like to remind clients to plan on one to three years from the time you decide to sell until the time you are free to sit on a beach. This includes six to 12 months to complete a transaction and one to three years for a typical employment transition and/or earn-out.

Note: There are many factors that are considered when an investment banker or a prospective buyer estimates the value of a company. Discounted cash flow models are a frequently used tool and involve more variables than could be reasonably factored into the above illustration. Buyers who are seeking to satisfy strategic objectives through an acquisition will frequently offer valuations that are above what could be justified by DCF modeling. Only the market can determine what a company is truly worth.

01 Jun
Engaging an Investment Banker: What You Should Know

In the prior article titled Investment Banking Retainer Fees – Beware of Conflicts I mentioned that the average closing rate among US intermediaries representing transactions valued in the range of $5 million to $30 million range is approximately 30%. I also stated that the average engagement fee for such transactions is around $50 thousand. Needless to say, I never met a business owner who wanted to pay an engagement fee or retainer, especially with a success rate of only 30%. So what are you going to do about this issue when it is time to sell your business? My suggestion when choosing an investment banker is as follows:

  1. Be sure to get a valuation from the prospective banker prior to engaging. Make sure that the Banker justifies the valuation to you with high credibility.
  2. Some bankers may try to charge you for the valuation. In my opinion, this is an investment that the banker needs to make in order to “quote the job”. Would you pay a builder to quote you price to build a home, or a real estate agent to give you an estimate on the value of your house?
  3. Ask the banker what he/she thinks is the probability of closing the transaction at the valuation provided.
  4. Don’t even consider selling your Company if the probability is less the 70% – 80%. There’s just too much work and exposure risk to enter into this arduous process for any less than a 70% probability of success.
  5. Assuming that the banker is quite confident of meeting your objective then ask him/her “If you are so confident of selling my company, why then do you need a retainer?”

Several common answers to this question are:

  1. Because it typically takes 6 – 12 months to sell a company and in the meantime we have significant overhead.
  2. Because we need to know you’re serious before we invest our substantial resources to sell your company.

My thought on these answers are as follows:

  1. I would not want to engage with an advisor that is going to assist me to sell one of the largest, if not the largest, transaction of my life if that advisor needed my retainer to pay his overhead.
  2. If the advisor cannot tell if you, the Prospective Seller, is serious then how on earth will he/she be able to determine if the potential buyer is serious? After stating the foregoing to the advisor perhaps he responds with; “With no skin in the game what is stopping you from just changing your mind after we expend a substantial amount of our resources to sell your Company?” There are many ways to deal with this, such as the implementation of a break fee in the event that the advisor brings bonafide offers which meet some predetermined criteria. The advisor is supposedly an expert in deal structuring, surely he can structure a deal with you that will meet both of your needs!

OK, down to brass tacks. The above is all well and good but the fact of the matter is that most advisors in the lower middle market just cannot afford to do enough diligence to provide them with the confidence they need to waive the retainer. Let’s, for a moment, put aside the potential conflicts of interest that a large engagement fee can cause. If the advisor does not have confidence that they will succeed, at least a 70% confidence level as previously stated, then I don’t believe that the business owner should hire such advisor. The worst thing that can possibly happen is that you execute the selling process more than once. This is one process that you want to do the right way the first time. The implications of going to market a second time can be disastrous, but this is a topic for another article.

With the above stated, if you find that you cannot avoid paying the retainer and still want to engage the Advisor, at least you should have gotten a warm and cozy from the answers the Advisor provided to the above questions. I think you will be surprised by the type of answers you get. The worst that happens, as a result of these questions, is that you will learn allot about the thinking of the advisors which may represent one of the most important transactions of your life.